Lecturer: Jaime Sevilla

Date: 19-09-2019

Time: 17:00

Place: Room 113 (1st floor, Faculty of Mathematics UCM)

Abstract: In this interactive workshop we will learn how to make precise predictions through a 50 min long exercise.

We will walk through:

  • Definining precise forecasting problems
  • Estimating a base rate using reference classes and basic statistical modelling
  • Adjusting base rates with inside knowledge
  • Evaluating forecasting performance using proper scoring rules

No previous knowledge is required. The talk will be in English.


  • Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown Publishing Group New York, NY, USA. 2015

Promotional poster